In every modern recession, the fall in housing prices follows the economy slowing down. What we have yet to see is the falling economy's effect on housing prices. So if you think prices have already dropped, and might even be reaching a bottom, we think it's the other way around: prices are about to start dropping.And so here we are. Yesterday's news of a mind-boggling 50,000+ jobs lost in a single day brings us now to the start of this second bubble popping. Because for all of economic talk about housing markets and prices and fancy new mortgages that were created, at its economic base, housing prices are just about the simplest thing in the world. When people make more money, or more people move into a market, housing prices slowly go up. When people make less money, or people move out of a market, housing prices slowly go down. The housing bubble popped, leading to recession, and the recession is now going to lead to a further decline in housing prices. Where will that lead? The problem at the root of the housing asset bubble is that over the last few decades -- since Reagan and the Republican free-market supply-side, trickle-down policies took over -- Americans have not been earning more, they've just been able to buy more thanks to a litany of mortgage and other debt-raising products that compensate for the lack of earnings. People used to be required to put 20% down before they could buy a house. How many people do you know, honestly, that have 20% to put down on a house now? How many do you know that actually have 20% equity accrued in the house they already own? We're betting not many. That 20% down payment requirement kept housing prices in check. But that became a 15% requirement, then 10%, then 5% then a negative 10% requirement, where you could actually get a mortgage for 110% of the value of your house. Well, they helped inflate the bubble. On top of that, loan standards used to require that people spend no more than 25-28% of their income on housing expenses. This also kept prices in check. This was also set aside, and "liar loans" further inflated the bubble. Now that all has to be undone. Last August, real estate experts were claiming that 2009 was to be the bottom of the market, and housing prices were going to head back up. Just like they claimed that 2008 was going to be the bottom and that 2007 was when the market would turn. Sadly, the chances of real estate prices turning back up, in real dollar terms, has vanished for the next decade at least. There are two coherent facts behind this. First, the size of the bubble means that someone who bought a house for $500,000 in 2005 is already 20-25% down in the price of the house. Factor in inflation, and it's closer to 35 - 40% down right now, four years later. Of the millions of Americans who will lose their jobs this year, many will be unable to cover their mortgages. And foreclosures, short sales, sales right before the short sales, these will continue to increase, driving prices down even further. This all means there is little demand for high-priced houses. Second, the bubble caused a building boom, and along with all the foreclosures there is now a huge supply of houses and condos waiting to be sold. And only then will the "shadow" market of people waiting on the sidelines for a better market in which to sell their houses kick in. Only after all of these factors are cleared will market conditions even start to return to normal. By 2010, perhaps 2011, perhaps we will see signs of a bottom of the real estate market, with prices having returned to their historical norms at a level that many suggest is 30-35% below where they are today. For many, this will be personal financially troubling, even disastrous. From an economic point of view, it is the fundamental principal of supply, demand, and income proving to be true again, and a return to economic reality. What can be done about it? The root cause of this and many other problems in our economy is the stagnation of incomes that began when Reagan was elected. Republican policies brought a massive concentration of wealth at the top with a select few reaping all of the benefits of our economic system. But this double-bubble collapsing-economy problem is costing their wealth as well. Trickle-down doesn't, and when the rest of us are tapped out by misguided policies like these it spells disaster for everyone.]]>
Sheldon Adelson, the 74-year-old casino billionaire who has become the third richest man in America and who has strong ties to the hard-line Likud Party in Israel, has emerged this year a major benefactor of the American right.Adelson has been a major backer of right-wing Republicans, including Tom DeLay, and has given $2.9 million to a Newt Gingrich organization, American Solutions for Winning the Future. And now, according to Edsell,
. . .Adelson, according to the National Journal, has begun channeling cash and fundraising support to Vets for Freedom, which is expected to use the influx of money to finance what it claims will be a multimillion dollar "Four Months For Victory" ad campaign.Why does a wealthy Jewish casino owner, so rich that he is flown around in his own Boeing 767, support a veteran's organization? Probably because Vets For Freedom isn't really a veteran's organization, but a Republican Party front group working to elect John McCain and keep the Iraq war going. If Vets For Freedom was a veteran's organization, they would be front and center in holding John McCain responsible for voting against the new G.I. Bill? But they didn't say a word. If Vets For Freedom was a veteran's organization, they would be concerned with the hundreds of thousands of returning wounded warriors and their need for care and assistance? But they're not. In fact, Vets For Freedom has only one mission - build public support for continuing the war in Iraq and now it appears they really only have one donor - a hard line neoconservative who is determined to influence US foreign policy in the Middle East. Adelson is also a major funder of Freedom's Watch, another Republican front group that exists solely to help wealthy individuals like Adelson get around campaign finance laws that are designed to protect our democracy from this kind of dollars-outweigh-votes corrupting influence. These organizations are allowed to take unlimited donations and not disclose donors because they are supposed to be educating the public about issues, not polluting our elections with ads that support or smear candidates. But, of course, who in the Bush government is going to stop them from breaking our campaign finance laws to support Republicans and smear Democrats? In Israel Adelson has purchased a newspaper that he uses to try to influence Israeli politics. According to some, he inspires resentment and fear there. A recent New Yorker article about Adelson says,
"In Israel, where political, academic and business leaders tend to be outspoken, there is a striking reticence at the mention of Sheldon Adelson. Even people who are diametrically opposed to his politics refuse to be interviewed. 'There is a discernible amount of self-censorship going on,' the liberal Israeli-American writer Bernard Avishai said. 'There is no ideological justification for what Sheldon is doing among the Israeli intelligentsia and a revulsion at an American weighing in so heavily on Israeli politics, in such a crude, reactionary way. But they won't speak.'"Post-Script: As we were about to publish it, news comes that Sheldon Adelson has hired Karl Rove with a mid six figure deal to help run "Freedom's Watch" another right wing front group. ]]>
(this space left intentionally blank because there aren't any)Yes, a complete listing right there We have recently written a few posts about Vets for Freedom. In our post, "Vets for Freedom Says Thousands Of Donors -- We Count Five", we asked how a group that had only five donors and $2050 in contributions in the most recent reporting period could say their 501c4 arm had "thousand" of donors and donations of over $1.5 million. In our post "25,000 Members" But Only 5 Donors? Is This The New Math?" we noted the low traffic at their website and again asked about their claim to have "thousands" of donors. We urged the media not to fall for their "thousands of donors" line. Soon we are going to write more about this "veterans" group. We have been looking into where this "veterans" organization stands on veterans issues. Early indications from the NewsLadder indicate that well, they don't. We encourage everyone -- from the left and the right -- to join this effort and go sign up at the Vets For Freedom NewsLadder. This way people can see the stories and decide for themselves about the group.]]>
The £750,000 campaign launched by the 25,000-member Vets for Freedom implicitly criticises the Republican senator's anti-war Democrat rival Barack Obama, who has stated he wants to withdraw combat forces within 16 months of taking office.On the other hand, if Vets For Freedom really does have 25,000 veteran members, we'll post the whole membership list right here, just send us the names guys, we'll put everyone up. After all, we can easily fit in five names right here. ]]>
Vets for Freedom's efforts are being fueled by donations from thousands of people nationwide, Hegseth said. He said the group will not release donors' names nor the size of their donations. The group is registered under a section of federal tax law that allows it to advertise and organize on behalf of particular policies while maintaining the confidentiality of its donors. Donations to political campaigns or political action committees, by contrast, generally must be reported and are limited by law.Thousands of donations? We looked up Vets for Freedom's reporting records and found a total of five (5) donors and $2,050 total donations in the most recent period they reported. This reporting is for their "527" committee, which is legally allowed to " influence the nomination, election, appointment or defeat of candidates for public office" but is not allowed to coordinate with any candidate's campaign. However, their 501c4 charity arm, the part of the group that does not have to report its donors, can not legally do any of those things. So what's the takeaway? On one hand, we have a 527 group with a total of $2,050 in donations, not enough to pay for Mark Penn's coffee break, and on the other we have a charity that legally can not be involved in direct political action? What's happening? Well if you have "thousands" of mystery donors unreported but supporting John McCain's campaign and suddenly, a small fringe front group with just 5 real donors has over $1.5 million dollars to run a television campaign and there are plans for a major push this fall. We're betting this is nothing more than a conduit for one or two very large donations intended to get around election law to the benefit of candidate McCain. The Washington Post's blog The Trail tried to pin Hegseth down on why this "non-election" group is advertising with McCain's message in swing states important to McCain, and only just before an election with McCain as a candidate. From the story,
Hegseth said his group is not operating on behalf of McCain and notes that federal law prohibits the organization from coordinating the ad with the campaign. The states were chosen, he said, not because they are crucial swing states for McCain, but because the heightened interest in the election in those states will give it a larger audience.What Hegseth didn't mention is that VFF's ads were bought immediately after the McCain Campaign stopped advertising. What Hegseth didn't mention is that VFF is supporting candidates across the country, but surprise, none of the Iraq War or Vietnam veterans who are running like Jon Powers or Charlie Brown. What Hegseth didn't mention is that there are real veterans groups with real veterans signing real petitions and supporting a candidate, only those real veterans, are supporting Barack Obama. The only thing Hegseth could do was concede that the message in the ad is almost identical to McCain's on the stump -- the surge worked; let's continue the war until we win. He said McCain has been the "strongest advocate" for the veterans of the two wars. Which is about as believable as McCain's claim that real veterans groups support him.]]>
... Sheldon G. Adelson, the chairman and chief executive of the Las Vegas Sands Corporation, who ranks sixth on the Forbes Magazine list of the world's billionaires; Mel Sembler, a shopping center magnate based in St. Petersburg, Fla., who served as the ambassador to Italy and Australia; John M. Templeton Jr., the conservative philanthropist from Bryn Mawr, Pa.; and Anthony H. Gioia, a former ambassador to Malta who heads an investment group based in Buffalo, N.Y. All four men are long-time prolific donors who have raised money on behalf of Republican and conservative causes.as well as
Richard Fox, one of the major building, development and real estate management companies in eastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey and a longtime GOP activist. He co-founded the Republican Jewish Coalition. Gary Erlbaum, owner of Greentree Properties in Ardmore, Pa., who tried to rally Orthodox Jewish support for last year's failed reelection bid of conservative Christian Sen. Rick Santorum.Freedom's Watch has direct connections with the Republican Party and is staffed by Republican Party operatives like Ari Fleischer, former White House Spokesperson; Bradley A. Blakeman, a former deputy assistant to George W. Bush; Kevin E. Moley, a senior adviser to Dick Cheney during the 2000 campaign. Check out their site and their rhetoric. It is a major right wing group and here's the scary part: Freedom's Watch says it plans to raise over $250,000,000 to play in this election. But Freedom's Watch is a 501(c)(4) organization, which means they can engage in political activity but not as their primary mission. They are allowed to lobby on issues but not support candidates. Yet the group appears to be primarily designed to influence elections in favor of Republican candidates But who is going enforce the laws? The FEC? The Justice Department? Perhaps Senate Democrats can issue one of their strongly-worded statements of disapproval. So what do we do? We watch them -- and we start exposing them now, every day, all day. We are going to post these articles frequently and often. We are going to launch a Newsladder where we would appreciate everyone joining and linking up anything they see about this group. We are going to launch in the coming days a new site, www.watchingfreedomswatch.com where, again, will write and expose this group. The issue isn't you - and what you know. If you are reading this you are a blog-reader and already know more than most people about how these things work. The issue is whether we can drive narratives and how much knowledge we can give the average American about who these folks really are and what they are up to. ]]>
The FBI is warning that al Qaeda may be preparing a series of holiday attacks on U.S. shopping malls in Los Angeles and Chicago, according to an intelligence bulletin distributed to law enforcement authorities across the country this morning.Is there a single person in this country who doesn't wonder if this is another Bush trick? Be honest, it crossed your mind, didn't it? But what if it's true? Meanwhile, hardly a day goes by without another dramatic statement from Bush or Cheney claiming that Iran poses a grave threat to the world. But few bother to listen anymore. People just roll their eyes. Bush cried wolf over Iraq. Bush raised the terror threat level and announced arrests or warnings for political purposes. Bush pumped fear into the country to win elections. And now another warning. But what if it's true? Listen up, people! The FBI is warning about an al Queda attack on shopping malls this Christmas and almost no one will pay attention because no one believes this government anymore. Everyone has seen them manipulate terror threats, pump the fear for elections -- or just to get another capital gains tax cut passed. Bush has lost credibility, but the world remains dangerous. Congress must act! Congress must remove Bush and Cheney for lying to the country to start a war. Congress must restore the public's trust in our country's leadership. The current situation is dangerous. If the government says we are about to be attacked we need to be able to believe them and act on it, instead of rolling our eyes and wondering how these clowns think they can get away with more of this fear-pumping. Because there just might BE a time when we ARE about to be attacked. One more time: Congress, stop posturing. Stop worrying about the political fallout. Start doing what is right for the country. Bush and Cheney have to be removed from office because they lied to us to get us to support war in Iraq, and now no one believes the government, and this is dangerous. ]]>
Going to a NASCAR race? Better get your shots. That's the message Rep. Robin Hayes seems to think is being sent as a handful of congressional aides were told to get immunized before a fact-finding trip for a House Homeland Security Committee. The group was immunized for hepatitis A, hepatitis B, tetanus, diphtheria and influenza before attending last weekend's NASCAR race in Talladega and this weekend's race in Concord, N.C.Atlanta: GOP outraged over NASCAR-immunizations advisory And days after the lie was refuted, the lie continues to spread: Atlanta TV: Congressman Insults NASCAR Fans Indianapolis: NASCAR races danger to government workers? One way the Republican machine spreads this stuff is posting to forums. And here is an example of a "regular person" posting a comment in a sports forum:
It is offensive that the Democrats choose to be vaccinated from Nascar fans. I thought they claimed to be inclusive of everyone and they blame Republicans for having stereotypes. If they went to a football, baseball, or basketball game would they have been vaccinated? NO. It's when they go to a Nascar event that they are vaccinated. Obviously they consider Nascar fans to be a group of rednecks, southerners and Christians that are apparently disease ridden.Here is another sports forum example.]]>
On Monday, Al Gore has a new book coming out next week, titled, The Assault On Reason. Because he is standing up, telling the truth and because he simply is a Democrat and progressive leader, Al Gore will be smeared mercilessly by the right-wing smear machine. He will be ridiculed, made fun of and mocked. They will tease and make fun of him. They will rush to say that he is bitter about 2000, crazy, insane, pontificating and out of touch. They will bring up his utility bills and the boards he is a member of. They will talk about his kiss with Tipper, her crusade against vulgar rap lyrics. They will bring up his weight and the beard. And say it's all about 2008.]]>
And, of course, we were right.
And what happened when Al Gore won an Oscar for his documentary, An Inconvenient Truth? Again, smeared. And that smear continues to spread. There are currently 519,000 web pages referencing it. Now there is a possibility that Al Gore is going to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his outstanding work warning about and fighting climate change caused by greenhouse gases released into our air. You would think this was a good thing. But there is a multi-million-dollar "global warming denial industry" operating. It is funded by the big oil and coal companies. Because they have a stranglehold on our economy - and our thinking - these are the most profitable corporations in the history of the world. And they want to keep it that way. So they dish out millions to front-groups to fog over the science that tells us the planet is in danger -- and to smear good people like Al Gore who want us to be more efficient in our energy use, and find alternatives to fuels that pollute. So if Al Gore is awarded a Nobel Prize, expect the worst -- from the worst. ]]>
[T]his simply is a fact of modern politics in America. For the past three decades, the right wing has employed a powerful strategy of "$ell and $mear." They insist on being the gatekeepers to public opinion and have developed a powerful machine that tells us who to like - and who to hate. ... They $mear Democratic and Progressive heroes, reducing American success stories such as George McGovern, Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis into humiliated historical footnotes. They destroy our leaders. They destroy those that might become our leaders. There is no Democratic or Progressive leader of any note of the last twenty years that has not been attacked.Essentially, what we meant was:]]> This is Senator Clinton's primary challenge. Because since this strategy has been deployed, no one, not one single politician has been in the eye of the machine longer than Senator Clinton. For almost fifteen years, Americans have been bombarded with smears and negative commentary about her. Virtually every aspect of her life, personal and political, from her hairstyle to private decisions she made within her marriage, has been criticized.That's the reality that Senator Clinton, her supporters and her staff have had to deal with every single day and to their great credit, they didn't either ignore it, as John Kerry's campaign did in 2004 on many levels, nor did they whine and complain about it. What Hillary did was what she did in New York State. She and her staff rolled up their sleeves and went to work. One voter at a time, one appearance at a time, one county, one district, one state. And what happened in New York State was a pretty good precursor to what is happening nationally. Today, she is at the top of the list of home state own-party favorability ratings. Her 81% favorability rating among Democrats in New York State is right up there at the very top, tied with Ted Kennedy's rating among Democrats in Massachusetts. And Kennedy in Massachusettes is probably the golden standard for being liked by your party in your own state. Grudgingly, we hear from senior people in other campaigns that they are impressed at how hard she works, how good her team is, how they keep working all day, every day. They're right. She's top in the polls and in the fundraising race not because of some unforeseeable chain of events, she's there because she understood the reality of her situation and she has outworked everyone else. If she is our nominee, it will because of two core factors. She didn't attempt to smash the negative perception as much as she shattered it softly and slowly - one person at a time. She, and her team, have worked hard, and smart. Kudos to all of them. ]]>
It isn't obvious how the Paw family is able to afford such political largess. ...Did you ask them? Is it your business? Actually they did ask them:
But he added: "I have been fortunate in my investments and all of my contributions have been my money."But they have a Chinese name, so let's do a big story on it.
The Paws' political donations closely track donations made by Norman Hsu, a wealthy New York businessman in the apparel industry who once listed the Paw home as his address, according to public records. Mr. Hsu is one of the top fund-raisers for Mrs. Clinton's presidential campaign.And now we get to the root of the big scandal - (queue horror-movie music) Someone is CHINESE-American!]]> William and Alice Paw are of Chinese descent..That's the whole story. There are no accusations of any wrongdoing. Just an American family with a Chinese name is raising a lot of money for Senator Clinton. In the 1990s the Republicans ran a smear campaign for years, accusing the Clintons of passing nuclear-weapons secrets to China in exchange for campaign donations. There was never anything to back it up, of course, but the racial hatred aspect got them votes. It plays big in the South, we guess. In case people don't get it, the Right's echo chamber cranks up the noise. No subtle implications need apply: Laundering for Hillary?
The little green house at 41 Shelbourne Ave. in Daly City, Calif., (shown right) may spell big trouble for Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York as she pursues the presidency.And there they go again. The Republicans are gearing up for Senator Clinton's Presidential run. It won't be pretty, it won't be honest, but it wills be sadly, very predictable. ]]>
With the body barely cold, the Left has begun demonizing the late Pat Tillman. Tillman is the former NFL star who turned down a $3.6 million contract to join the Army Rangers after 9/11. He was killed last month in Afghanistan after Islamist soldiers ambushed his jeep. For most Americans, such noble service would qualify Tillman as a national hero, but it has unleashed a torrent of hatred on the Left.But then reality started messing with the storyline the administration was using. It emerged that Army investigators covered up that he was killed by "friendly fire." Then it was revealed that in fact, there was no engagement with the enemy at all - Pat Tillman was still a hero, but his death was a tragic mistake Then AP reported,
Within hours of Pat Tillman's death, the Army went into information-lockdown mode, cutting off phone and Internet connections at a base in Afghanistan, posting guards on a wounded platoon mate, and ordering a sergeant to burn Tillman's uniform.It finally came out that Tillman had been against Bush's policies, and was an atheist. At this point, as Pat Tillman's family sought closure on his death, they and America watched something very disturbing. No longer the convenient cover boy for the war, Pat Tillman became instead a target of smears and attacks. Just as Ann Coulter attacked Bobby Muller a Vietnam Veteran in a wheelchair with a pithy: 'People like you caused us to lose that war.' Now it was Pat Tilmman's turn. The leader of the second
Army medical examiners were suspicious about the close proximity of the three bullet holes in Pat Tillman's forehead and tried without success to get authorities to investigate whether his death amounted to a crime, according to documents obtained by the Associated Press.As the news goes from bad to worse for administration the distraction strategy is elevated. Time and time again, we have seen this used, sadly, often with great success. If you don't want to talk about John Edwards plan to end Poverty, talk about his hair. If you can't compete with Hillary on her policies, talk about her cleavage. It is a tactic that deprives the American people of a conversation about the real problems of our country. It is a strategy that keeps good men and women out of running; and the media is part of the problem, not part of the solution as they should be. Right-wing blog Macsmind:
He wasn't so much a patriot as he was apparently an antiwar leftist who enjoyed chomping on Noam Chomsky. ... Not the first, won't be the last leftist in the ranks. Fact is so is his brother, Kevin. Shame. We used to sniff them out in basic training and help them "out".Pat Tillman is a hero. The military leaders who covered up his death and at the same time, promoted his sacrifice as a propoganda tool, there the ones that should be sniffed out and helped 'out' of the service of this country. YearlyKos NOTE: We will be hosting a "Smoking Politics" Roundtable on Saturday Morning. Join us as we would love to meet you and discuss the issues we've been bringing up in these posts.]]>